San Francisco Real Estate: “The Scoop”

Altos Research recently debuted their first monthly housing market update which tracks real estate data from 20 major metropolitan cities. The full report can be downloaded as a PDF here.

At the beginning of September The Potrero (451 Kansas) was reporting roughly 60% of their condos (105 units) in either contract or closed (including 85% of the north building and 33% of the south). And according to the president of their marketing company, “[w]e were aiming for 12 a month and are selling 18.”

It’s a little over three months later and The Potrero is now reporting 70% either in contract or closed (with an expected 100 closings by the end of the year). Almost all of the movement has been in the south building (50% now in contract or closed while the north building remains flat at 85%). And based on our calculations, net new sales have been running at closer to 4 condos a month since the beginning of September with roughly 50 left to sell (which might help explain the pricing on their latest release).

Two other numbers we found interesting: over 50% are first time buyers and over 90% are planning on making The Potrero their primary residence. And yes, all stats (but not the calculations) are according to the sales office.

∙ The Potrero (451 Kansas): Now 60% “Sold” And Closing Contracts [SocketSite]
∙ The Potrero (451 Kansas): Now From Under $400,000 (Just Barely) [SocketSite]

It was nine months ago that one reader wondered what was in the works at 77 Van Ness and another quickly answered: “an eight-story, 100-foot-tall mixed-use development providing residential, office, and retail space.”

And now we’ll add: it’s either 50 or 56 condos (depending upon how the 6 BMR units were resolved); almost 20,000 square feet of office space; and 1,350 square feet of ground floor commercial. And we’ll ask: has anybody seen (and care to share) a rendering or two?

∙ Reader’s Questions: That Eureka Moment [SocketSite]

As a plugged-in reader noted last week, Sunset’s San Francisco Idea House webpage has been updated to read:

The San Francisco Idea House will be open from 11/30/2007 through 1/27/2008 Friday, Saturday, and Sunday 9am-4pm. PLEASE NOTE THE HOUSE WILL BE CLOSED THE WEEKEND OF 12/21 and 12/28 due to the holidays. After the holidays we will resume our open schedule the weekend of 1/4/2008.

And if you were interested in 1303 Alabama but didn’t think it was worth more than a million, we’ll note that it was just reduced $94,000 (or 8.6%) and is now listed (along with some new interior photos) at $995,000.

∙ Sunset’s 2007 San Francisco Idea House Officially Opens Its Doors [SocketSite]
∙ Sunset’s 2007 San Francisco Idea House: A Few Facts [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 1303 Alabama (2/2.5) -$995,000 (TIC) [MLS]

“Federal Reserve staff recommended that policy makers issue new restrictions on subprime mortgages, from a ban on low-documentation loans to limiting penalties for borrowers who prepay their debts.

The rule proposal, which the Board of Governors will vote on later today, follows months of public comment by Congress and consumer advocates, who urged the Fed to toughen consumer protections. Finance-industry officials warned that a crackdown would curtail lending in the midst of the housing recession.”

“The Fed proposed tightening restrictions on so-called pre- payment penalties, requiring the escrow of taxes and insurance, and banning loans made without verification of income or assets. Lenders would be responsible for determining whether their customers can afford a loan after the initial interest rate resets.”

∙ Fed Staff Recommends Tighter Curbs on Subprime Loans [Bloomberg]

According to a tipster, the 130 condos at Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness) are now “45% sold” (i.e., in contract) and should be available for occupancy as soon as February (2008).

If that sales figure includes Symphony Towers’ 16 BMR units, it would represent fewer than fifty market rate sales over the past five months (which might surprise some considering their relatively low price point and “first fifty” promotion) and not much movement (in terms of net sales) since opening day.

∙ The SocketSite Scoop On Sales At Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness) [SocketSite]
∙ Symphony Towers: A SocketSite Reader Reports On Opening Day [SocketSite]

If you happen to be out of town and recognize this kitchen as your own, you might want to touch base with your condo sitter (or perhaps the police) posthaste. For it’s a plugged-in tipster that finds the following on Craigslist:

I have a modern kitchen by Pedini for sale. With the appliance I paid apx $55,000 for it….Its current installed in my condo. It was never used….You have to take out and install it your self. Includes all the appliances….Im located in off Vanness. Send me your offers. Please no under bidders I need it. sold asap.

We’re still working on making sense of it all (let us know if you figure it out). And perhaps there’s a much simpler explanation to be had (and let us know if you get it).

∙ Modern Kicthen [sic] By Pedini [Craigslist]

818 Van Ness Avenue is an eight (8) story mixed-use condominium project of 52 residential units above two new retail spaces (810 and 826 Van Ness). The design is by Forum Design. The building should be on the market in early 2008. And yes, they’re already accounted for in our Complete Inventory Index (Cii).

∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q3 2007 (SF) [SocketSite]

While Kink’s window restoration project for the San Francisco Armory has been replacing boarded-up and broken windows for the first time in 30 years, and the building might actually be feeling a bit festive (rather than altogether abandoned), it’s the hypothetical “Kink condos” that seem to be getting all the attention.

“Porn producer Peter Acworth, who bought the 93-year-old Mission Armory and turned it into a porn video studio, has approached the city Planning Department with the idea of converting some of the building into kinky condos - complete with Webcams for all the world to see.”

“My discussions with the Planning Department have been extremely hypothetical to say the least,” Acworth said via e-mail. “There is no firm plan for using the Armory for anything but a conventional film studio for now.”

We could be wrong, but it sounds more like an inquiry into establishing live-in film studios rather than condo development per se. And while we could be wrong again, it seems as thought the corner of Mission and 14th has been getting better (rather than worse) since Kink acquired the ailing armory.

∙ Porn prince wants to build kinky condos in Armory [SFGate]
∙ From (Proposed) Condos To Kink [SocketSite]

“The Chronicle analyzed ownership information for 6,557 Bay Area homes and condos repossessed by lenders in the first nine months of this year. Those represented 94 percent of all Bay Area foreclosures during the time period; full records of past ownership were not available for the remaining foreclosures.

Of these, just under 1,000 were owned by 439 people who had multiple properties foreclosed upon from January to September. An additional 349 foreclosures were owned by people who listed mailing ZIP codes different from their property’s address at the time of purchase - suggesting the properties were an investment, not a primary residence.

The vast majority of these properties were bought with little or no money down, according to an analysis of DataQuick’s loan information. About 69 percent of the investors got 100 percent financing, meaning they did not put down a dime of their own money toward the purchase prices. An additional 12 percent made down payments that were less than 5 percent of the purchase price. Only 10 percent of investors put down the standard 20 percent.

Some 80 percent of the investor-owned Bay Area foreclosures were purchased at the height of the real estate market in 2005 and 2006, public records show.”

[Editor’s Note: “Investment” properties are often undercounted due to buyers self identifying their purchases as being owner-occupied in order to benefit from more favorable mortgage rates/terms.]

∙ Investors own about one-fifth of Bay Area homes in foreclosure [SFGate]