Market Update as of June 5th 2009
I read a lot of real estate blogs. I am always curious to see what other people are writing about and I can’t resist adding my 2 cents if I have an opinion on topic. I swear off a few of those blogs every couple of months when the comments and editorial get particularly vicious towards real estate agents, as they often do - then get sucked back in when there’s an interesting story I can’t resist.
What I’ve noticed is that both on the blogs, and in the press, the overall ‘mood’ seems to be that we’ve hit a bottom of sorts. I wrote a post back in March titled ‘Signs of a Real Estate Rebound’ about a CBS report on the multiple offers that were happening in the low end of the market, and you would have thought the title was ‘OMG YOU’RE ABOUT TO LOSE OUT ON YOUR ONLY OPPPORTUNITY TO BUY EVER’. Nowadays the venom when people are suggesting we are at a bottom is far less vicious although that opinion is definitely still present.
You will always get the side who vehemently insists there is more pain to go through, and there are certainly numerous statistical analysis, and intelligently written articles to make that case. My personal opinion is that prices and the economy as a whole are far more emotional in nature, and that consumer confidence, more than most anything determines whether the market is going either up or down. Right now confidence is up, I’m not certain it still will be this fall, but at the moment we seem to be headed in the right direction - and that is reflected both in the press, and in the subtle changes we’ve been seeing in real estate sales as a whole. I would say on record, I’m not really a bull or a bear, and that as always buying real estate is a personal decision. What is going to be the right choice for one is not going to be for another.
That being said let’s take a look at some of the most recent numbers.
Hotsheet Statistics for the past 2 weeks:
New Listings: 339 (down from 370 from the 2-week period ending May 1st, a not unusual reduction as spring moves into summer)
Back on Market: 78 - 20% of all properties going contingent sale or pending sale are coming back on market
Price Reductions: 252 – the number of price reductions is still very high – for every property that sold, 1.6 properties reduced their prices
Went Contingent Sale: 198 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Went Pending Sale: 193 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Sold: 157 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Sold REO: 13 – 8.5% of home sales were REO sales (Note: there are currently 95 REO sales contingent or pending sale.)
Expired/Withdrawn: 163 (a bit lower than one month ago)
Back on Market: 78 - 20% of all properties going contingent sale or pending sale are coming back on market
Price Reductions: 252 – the number of price reductions is still very high – for every property that sold, 1.6 properties reduced their prices
Went Contingent Sale: 198 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Went Pending Sale: 193 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Sold: 157 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Sold REO: 13 – 8.5% of home sales were REO sales (Note: there are currently 95 REO sales contingent or pending sale.)
Expired/Withdrawn: 163 (a bit lower than one month ago)
The overview, as of today June 5th 2009, is that market activity has continued to get stronger over the past month, continuing a trend that began in March/April. Median prices of those properties that have accepted offers have increased, which suggests that values are stabilizing. The number of properties that have accepted offers but not yet closed are up in every category and inventory levels of Active properties (available for purchase) is down, slightly. This is all compared to the data collected as of May 1st 2009.
Signs of a Real Estate Recovery [SFHomeBlog]
Current Trends in San Francisco Real Estate 3.2.09 [SFHomeBlog]
